Oldham East and Saddleworth: An interesting by-election, or just a good riddance to an old enemy?

For the first time since the general election voters are going to the ballot box today. A by-election is taking place in the constituency of Oldham East and Saddleworth, due to a court ruling the general election result void. Whilst only one parliamentary seat is being fought over, the vote has taken on a greater national significance. As the first instance of voting since the general election the result in Oldham East and Saddleworth could provide an insight into the general public’s mood towards the coalition government and the Labour party in opposition. However what the analysts and party strategists will be looking at is not who wins the seat, as it will almost certainly be Labour, but the vote allocation between the parties.

Opposition parties nearly always win by-elections, and in this contest there is only one major party in opposition as the other two are part of a coalition government. A government which is having to increase taxes and cut public spending on a scale not seen for decades. All this means that we should witness a comfortable Labour hold but the numbers behind this hold will be important; to two men in particular. Ed Milliband will be hoping to see his party gain a large majority to give him ammunition to fight those that have doubted his ability in what has been a difficult start to his reign as Labour leader. Nick Clegg on the other hand will be hoping that the Liberal Democrat vote does not suffer a big collapse; putting further jitters within the party over the consequences of his decision to have them join the Conservative in government. The Conservatives themselves have less interest in the result but they will be keen to see that their vote doesn’t drop significantly either. Their candidate in the general election actually turned the seat into something of a three way marginal with a big 8.7% increase in the share of the vote leaving the Conservatives with 26.4% behind the Liberal Democrats on 31.6% and Labour with 31.9%. There has been some suggestion that the Conservatives have not but their hearts into the campaign in order to give the Lib Dems a better chance. There is even the possibility that some tactical voting by Conservative supporters might take place in order to prop up their coalition allies, although that seems unlikely.

Regardless of the outcome of today’s vote, the fact that it is taking place at all is cause for celebration. This is because the candidate whose general election victory in Oldham East and Saddleworth was declared void was Phil Woolas; the Immigration Minister in Gordon Browns Labour government. As a minister Phil Woolas had a habit of manipulating immigration figures and occasionally outright lying about them in order to defend Labour’s record. There was an instance where he was found to have lied about immigration figures on a morning politics show. He came back on the same show the next day after being asked to put the record straight, with new figures and statistics at hand he did so. As you have probably guessed these figures were also a manipulation of the truth, but he didn’t return for a third attempt at being honest. It was therefore a happy day for me when I heard that he had lost his seat and been suspended by his party. To top it off the reason why the courts ruled his victory void was due to him publishing and distributing vicious lies about his Liberal democrat opponent.
Rarely is such sweet justice delivered.

VAT increases and weeping reptiles

VAT, the tax politicians most keenly wanted to avoid
talking about during the election, was raised by 2.5% last night. The new rate is in line with the other major countries of Europe but it is still a tax increase which affects every voter in the country. Predictably therefore moral outrage and crocodile tears have flowed from the Labour ranks in an effort to capitalize on its potential unpopularity. The cry of ‘The wrong tax at the wrong time’ is certainly a good sound bite but does that mean a Labour government would have kept VAT at 17.5%?
Certainly not.

I’m sure Ed Milliband would find a way to deny that assertion, but not many could or indeed should take such a denial seriously. The estimated revenue from the increase is 13 billion pounds, the difference between the two parties economic plans going into the election was never that substantial and weren’t Labour the party which advocated more tax rises and less spending cuts anyway? The truth is politicians from all parties realized that an increase in VAT was going to be a major tool in reducing the country’s spending deficit and Ed Milliband was no different. During the election the economic spokesmen from the two most important parties maintained the same line ‘We have no plans to increase VAT’ but also maintained a stubborn refusal to rule it out. It’s sad that our politicians cannot be honest with us, but had either of them broken ranks and delivered the truth they would have paid for it at the ballot box, so can we blame them?

One party however did bring up the issue of VAT during the election, whilst the other two major parties did their best to avoid it, the Liberal Democrats. I read an article recently in a left-wing publication stating that the Lib Dems would be haunted by the image of their leaders in front of a poster decrying the Conservatives for planning to increase VAT, when they are now in a coalition government doing just that. What the writer of the article overlooked however is that when questioned during the election if he would therefore rule out a rise in VAT Vince Cable replied ‘We have no plans to increase VAT’.

Populist opportunism like this characterized the Liberals election campaign and for a while looked like a strategy which might deliver them second place ahead of Labour in terms of the popular vote. It is therefore no surprise that Ed Milliband is adopting similar tactics to revive his party’s fortunes. We should expect more from the leader of the opposition though, especially one who was part of a ruling government less than a year ago. His party should expect more from him too; alternative policies for how the country should deal with its deficit, not just blank pages, and crocodile tears.